Oct 2025: Invited Talk by Eric J. Daza DrPH, MPS, Associate Director, Principal Clinical Data Scientist at Böhringer Ingelheim, Germany
31 October 2025, 11.15h, The talk given by Dr. Eric J. Daza is titled “Model-Twin Randomization (MoTR) for Estimating the Recurring Individual Treatment Effect”
Abstract Temporally dense single-person “small data” have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person’s own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; “motor”) method for analyzing an individual’s intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring individual treatment effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze up to almost eight years of the authors’ own Fitbit™ steps and sleep data.
Bio Dr. Eric J. Daza is a biostatistician and data scientist (BA neurobiology, MPS applied statistics, DrPH biostatistics). He created Stats-of-1, a newsletter/podcast on n-of-1 trials (switchback experiments), single-case designs, and digital health personal AI, featured in Forbes and Fortune magazines. He invented a patent-pending method using his time series causal inference framework. Dr. Daza is an American Statistical Association DEIA leader, neurodivergent Filipino American immigrant, and accomplished musician/pianist.
Date/Hour: 31 October 2025, 11.15h
Location: UniMail M 5220, email katarzyna.wac@unige.ch for a zoom link